John Kinney Memorial Lecture - David Aldous
Institution: University of California, Berkeley
Title: Probability, Outside the Textbook
Date: Tuesday, October 16, 2018
Location: 1420 Biomedical and Physical Sciences Building
Time: 3:00PM - 3:50PM
What does 350 years of mathematical probability theory tell us that is interesting or useful, and demonstrably true via empirical data? Introductory textbook topics have rather limited scope. In a second undergraduate course at Berkeley I attempt to show the breadth of contexts where chance arises, and this talk illustrates some topics from that course. Elo Ratings and the Sports Model; The Kelly criterion for stock investing; An example of inventing a new probability model; In what contexts of everyday life do we think in terms of chance?; Some data relating to philosophy of probability; Scoring real-world prediction tournaments; Martingales and prediction markets.